Shadow Case
Released Sep 15, 2015
Drop odds
Every standard case uses the same rarity distribution, so opening one is mostly a Mil-Spec lottery: red and gold pulls together account for less than 1% of openings. Roughly 1 in 10 drops comes out StatTrak™.
| Rarity tier | Skins in tier | Tier odds | Odds per skin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | 7 | 79.92% | ~11.417% (1 in 9) |
| Restricted | 4 | 15.98% | ~3.995% (1 in 25) |
| Classified | 3 | 3.2% | ~1.067% (1 in 94) |
| Covert | 2 | 0.64% | ~0.320% (1 in 313) |
| Rare Special Item | 13 | 0.26% | ~0.020% (1 in 5,000) |
Source: rarity odds disclosed by Valve for case openings in China. Opening also requires a key bought in-game, so factor that cost in before chasing a specific skin.
Is opening worth it?
The market has priced this case close to its opening value: $4.11 in, $5.60 expected out. That does not make it a good bet, because the average hides extreme variance: nearly 80% of pulls land in the cheapest tier, and the rare drops carry almost all the value. If you want a specific skin, buying it directly is still the reliable route.
Method: official tier odds times the average median market price of each skin across its wears (28 of 29 items have live listings, prices from 2026-07-14). StatTrak upgrades are ignored, which makes the estimate slightly conservative.
Rare Special Items (knives & gloves)
Skins in this case
